본문바로가기

Wealth of Nations : The Future of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Their Nature and Role in 2030

John P. Caves, Jr., and W. Seth Carus, National Defense University Press Washington, D.C., 2014년 발간

세부항목 안내표
대분류 키워드 Time Horizon Quality Territorial Scope
Political 2030년 Recommand Global

Scenario 보고서

요약

The longstanding efforts of the international community writ large to exclude weapons of mass destruction (WMD) from international competition and conflict could be undermined in 2030. The proliferation of these weapons is likely to be harder to prevent and thus potentially more prevalent. Nuclear weapons are likely to play a more significant role in the international security environment, and current constraints on the proliferation and use of chemical and biological weapons could diminish. There will be greater scope for WMD terrorism, though it is not possible to predict the frequency or severity of any future employment of WMD. New forms of WMD—beyond chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear weapons—are unlikely to emerge by 2030, but cyber weapons will probably be capable of inflicting such widespread disruption that the United States may become as reliant on the threat to impose unacceptable costs to deter large-scale cyber attack as it currently is to deter the use of WMD. The definition of weapons of mass destruction will remain uncertain and controversial in 2030, and its value as an analytic category will be increasingly open to question. These conclusions about the future of WMD derive from judgments about relevant technological and geopolitical developments out to 2030. Technological developments will shape what WMD capabilities will be achievable in that timeframe while geopolitical developments will shape motivations to acquire and use WMD. Technologically, by 2030, there will be lower obstacles to the covert development of nuclear weapons and to the development of more sophisticated nuclear weapons. Chemical and biological weapons (CBW) are likely to be 1) more accessible to both state and nonstate actors due to lower barriers to the acquisition of current and currently emerging CBW technologies; 2) more capable, particularly in terms of their ability to defeat current or currently emerging defensive countermeasures; 3) more discriminate; that is, more precisely targeted and/or more reliably low- or nonlethal; and 4) harder to attribute (utilizing hitherto unknown agents and/or delivery mechanisms) than the traditional forms known today. No major new technological developments regarding radiological weapons are foreseen. 

본문

Contents

Foreword  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1

Acknowledgments  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .3

Executive Summary  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4

Introduction  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

WMD in 2014  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9

WMD-Relevant Technological Trends  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .24

WMD-Relevant Geopolitical Trends  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .31

WMD in 2030  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .38

Policy Considerations  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .48

Notes  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .52

About the Authors  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .63

연관자료

연관자료 list
ID 제목 카테고리 Territorial Scope
연관자료 정보가 없습니다.