G.J. Boer, R.J. Stouffer, M. Dix, A. Noda, C.A. Senior, S. Raper, K.S. Yap, UNFCCC, 2001년 발간
대분류 | 키워드 | Time Horizon | Quality | Territorial Scope |
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Environmental | climate change | 없음 | Not Yet | Global |
The results presented in this chapter are based on simulations
made with global climate models and apply to spacial scales of
hundreds of kilometres and larger. Chapter 10 presents results for
regional models which operate on smaller spatial scales. Climate
change simulations are assessed for the period 1990 to 2100 and
are based on a range of scenarios for projected changes in
greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosol loadings
(direct effect). A few Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation
Model (AOGCM) simulations include the effects of ozone and/or
indirect effects of aerosols (see Table 9.1 for details). Most
integrations1 do not include the less dominant or less well
understood forcings such as land-use changes, mineral dust,
black carbon, etc. (see Chapter 6). No AOGCM simulations
include estimates of future changes in solar forcing or in volcanic
aerosol concentrations.
There are many more AOGCM projections of future climate
available than was the case for the IPCC Second Assessment
Report (IPCC, 1996) (hereafter SAR). We concentrate on the
IS92a and draft SRES A2 and B2 scenarios. Some indication of
uncertainty in the projections can be obtained by comparing the
responses among models. The range and ensemble standard
deviation are used as a measure of uncertainty in modelled
response. The simulations are a combination of a forced climate
change component together with internally generated natural
variability. A number of modelling groups have produced
ensembles of simulations where the projected forcing is the same
but where variations in initial conditions result in different
evolutions of the natural variability. Averaging these integrations
preserves the forced climate change signal while averaging out the
natural variability noise, and so gives a better estimate of the
models’' projected climate change.
Introduction
Climate and Climate Change
Projections of Climate Change
General Summary
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