David Spiegelhalter, AAAS, 2011년 발간
대분류 | 키워드 | Time Horizon | Quality | Territorial Scope |
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Technological | Uncertainty | 없음 | Recommand | Global |
We are all faced with uncertainty about the future, but we can get the measure of some
uncertainties in terms of probabilities. Probabilities are notoriously difficult to communicate
effectively to lay audiences, and in this review we examine current practice for communicating
uncertainties visually, using examples drawn from sport, weather, climate, health, economics,
and politics. Despite the burgeoning interest in infographics, there is limited experimental
evidence on how different types of visualizations are processed and understood, although the
effectiveness of some graphics clearly depends on the relative numeracy of an audience.
Fortunately, it is increasingly easy to present data in the form of interactive visualizations and
in multiple types of representation that can be adjusted to user needs and capabilities.
Nonetheless, communicating deeper uncertainties resulting from incomplete or disputed
knowledge—or from essential indeterminacy about the future—remains a challenge.
Communicating Uncertainty with Words and Numbers
Representing Probabilities with Graphics
Representing Uncertainty About Continuous Quantities
Infographics
What If We’re Uncertain About the Probabilities?
What Further Research Is Needed?
What About Deeper Uncertainties?
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