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Wealth of Nations : Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future

David Spiegelhalter, AAAS, 2011년 발간

세부항목 안내표
대분류 키워드 Time Horizon Quality Territorial Scope
Technological Uncertainty 없음 Recommand Global

Report 보고서

요약

We are all faced with uncertainty about the future, but we can get the measure of some

uncertainties in terms of probabilities. Probabilities are notoriously difficult to communicate

effectively to lay audiences, and in this review we examine current practice for communicating

uncertainties visually, using examples drawn from sport, weather, climate, health, economics,

and politics. Despite the burgeoning interest in infographics, there is limited experimental

evidence on how different types of visualizations are processed and understood, although the

effectiveness of some graphics clearly depends on the relative numeracy of an audience.

Fortunately, it is increasingly easy to present data in the form of interactive visualizations and

in multiple types of representation that can be adjusted to user needs and capabilities.

Nonetheless, communicating deeper uncertainties resulting from incomplete or disputed

knowledge—or from essential indeterminacy about the future—remains a challenge.

 

본문

Communicating Uncertainty with Words and Numbers

Representing Probabilities with Graphics

Representing Uncertainty About Continuous Quantities

Infographics

What If Were Uncertain About the Probabilities?

What Further Research Is Needed?

What About Deeper Uncertainties?

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