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Wealth of Nations : Global Health and Economic Impacts of Future Ozone Pollution

Noelle E. Selin*, Shiliang Wu†, Kyung-Min Nam‡, John M. Reilly*, Sergey Paltsev*, Ronald G. Prinn* and Mort D. Webster, MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, 2009년 발간

세부항목 안내표
대분류 키워드 Time Horizon Quality Territorial Scope
Environmental Future Ozone Pollution 없음 Recommand Global

Report 보고서

요약

We assess the human health and economic impacts of projected 2000-2050 changes in ozone pollution using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis-Health Effects (EPPA-HE) model, in combination with results from the GEOS-Chem global tropospheric chemistry model that simulated climate and chemistry effects of IPCC SRES emissions. We use EPPA to assess the human health damages (including acute mortality and morbidity outcomes) caused by ozone pollution and quantify their economic impacts in sixteen world regions. We compare the costs of ozone pollution under scenarios with 2000 and 2050 ozone precursor and greenhouse gas emissions (SRES A1B scenario). We estimate that health costs due to global ozone pollution above pre-industrial levels by 2050 will be $580 billion (year 2000$) and that acute mortalities will exceed 2 million.  We find that previous methodologies underestimate costs of air pollution by more than a third because they do not take into account the long-term, compounding effects of health costs. The economic effects of emissions changes far exceed the influence of climate alone. 

본문

1. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................1

2. MODEL DESCRIPTION ..............................................................................2

2.1 Atmospheric model.................................................................................2

2.2 Human health and economic model.........................................................3

3. POPULATION-WEIGHTED OZONE CONCENTRATIONS.................................5

4. HEALTH OUTCOMES.................................................................................7

5. ECONOMIC COSTS OF HEALTH IMPACTS...................................................9

6. POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS..............................................11

7. REFERENCES...........................................................................................12

APPENDIX A................................................................................................15  

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