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Wealth of Nations : Water footprint scenarios for 2050: A global analysis

A. Ertug Ercin, Arjen Y. Hoekstra, Elsevier, 2013년 발간

세부항목 안내표
대분류 키워드 Time Horizon Quality Territorial Scope
Environmental Water footprint 2050년 Recommand Global

Scenario 보고서

요약

This study develops water footprint scenarios for 2050 based on a number of drivers of change: population

growth, economic growth, production/trade pattern, consumption pattern (dietary change, bioenergy use) and

technological development. The objective the study is to understand the changes in the water footprint (WF)

of production and consumption for possible futures by region and to elaborate the main drivers of this change.

In addition, we assess virtual water flows between the regions of the world to show dependencies of regions

on water resources in other regions under different possible futures. We constructed four scenarios, along two

axes, representing two key dimensions of uncertainty: globalization versus regional selfsufficiency, and

economy-driven development versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study

shows how different drivers will change the level of water consumption and pollution globally in 2050.

The presented scenarios can form a basis for a further assessment of how humanity can mitigate future

freshwater scarcity. We showed with this study that reducing humanity's water footprint to sustainable

levels is possible even with increasing populations, provided that consumption patterns change. This

study can help to guide corrective policies at both national and international levels, and to set priorities

for the years ahead in order to achieve sustainable and equitable use of the world's fresh water resources.

본문

1. Introduction

2. Method

3. Results

4. Discussion and conclusion

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