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Wealth of Nations : POVERTY, GROWTH, AND INEQUALITY OVER THE NEXT 50 YEARS

Evan Hillebrand, Expert Meeting on How to feed the World in 2050, 2009년 발간

세부항목 안내표
대분류 키워드 Time Horizon Quality Territorial Scope
Social POVERTY, GROWTH, AND INEQUALITY 2050년 Recommand Global

Scenario 보고서

요약

Global poverty has fallen dramatically over the last two centuries, and the fall has intensified in recent

decades, raising hopes that it could be eliminated within the next 50 years. As industrialization,

specialization, and trade raised economic growth and living standards in Western Europe and the European

offshoots in the 19th century, much of the rest of the world also started growing rapidly after 1950.

Poverty reduction, however, has been very uneven across countries. Since 1980, China alone accounted for

most of the world’s decline in extreme poverty. Even though there has been a huge rise in income inequality

within China, economic growth has been so strong that hundreds of millions of people have risen out of

extreme poverty and the poverty ratio has plummeted. Sub-Saharan Africa, at the other extreme, has seen its

poverty headcount continue to rise; the negative impact of low economic growth has far outweighed modest

improvements in within-country income inequality.

Strong economic growth is the key to future poverty reduction. If the lagging non-OECD2 (Organisation for

Economic Co-operation and Development) countries are able to transition to a sustainable higher growth

path, the global poverty ratio will fall from about 21 percent in 2005 to less than 2.5 percent in 2050 and the

number of people living in absolute poverty will decline another billion people. While the historical record is

clear that market-friendly policies and competent governance are critical to growth, few economists are bold

enough to claim they know the precise combination of policies, and how to implement and sustain those

policies, to achieve this economic transition. Forecasts of future economic growth rates and poverty rates are

necessarily speculative and depend on a large number of assumptions about human behavior and policy

decisions that are impossible to know in advance.

본문

- POVERTY MEASUREMENT

- FORECASTING ECONOMIC GROWTH

- THE “MARKET FIRST” SCENARIO

- THE TREND GROWTH SCENARIO

- CONCLUSIONS

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