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Wealth of Nations : The World in 2050 Will the shift in global economic power continue?

PwC, PwC, 2015년 발간

세부항목 안내표
대분류 키워드 Time Horizon Quality Territorial Scope
Economics global economic power 2050년 Recommand Global

Scenario 보고서

요약

In our latest World in 2050 report we present economic growth projections for 32 of the largest economies in the world, accounting for around 84% of global GDP.  

We project the world economy to grow at an average of just over 3% per annum in the period 2014 – 50, doubling in size by 2037 and nearly tripling by 2050.  

But we expect a slowdown in global growth after 2020, as the rate of expansion in China and some other major emerging economies moderates to a more sustainable long-term rate, and as working age population growth slows in many large economies. 

The global economic power shift1 away from the established advanced economies in North America, Western Europe and Japan will continue over the next 35 years. China has already overtaken the US in 2014 to become the largest economy in purchasing power parity (PPP2) terms. In market exchange rate (MER) terms, we project China to overtake the US in 2028 despite its projected growth slowdown.  

India has the potential to become the second largest economy in the world by 2050 in PPP terms (third in MER terms), although this requires a sustained programme of structural reforms3. 

We project new emerging economies like Mexico and Indonesia to be larger than the UK and France by 2030 (in PPP terms) while Turkey could become larger than Italy. Nigeria and Vietnam could be the fast growing large economies over the period to 2050.  

Colombia, Poland and Malaysia all possess great potential for sustainable long-term growth in the coming decades according to our country experts. 

At the same time, recent experience has re-emphasised that relatively rapid growth is not guaranteed for emerging economies, as indicated by recent problems in Russia and Brazil, for example. It requires sustained and effective investment in infrastructure and improving political, economic, legal and social institutions. It also requires remaining open to the free flow of technology, ideas and talented people that are key drivers of economic catch-up growth.  

We think that overdependence on natural resources could also impede long term growth in some countries (e.g. Russia, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia) unless they can diversify their economies. 

본문

1. Summary: The world in 2050 

2. Introduction 

3. Key results 

4. Institutional challenges and business implications 

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