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Wealth of Nations : Towards a Future Internet

Ian Brown, Oxford Internet Institute, UK, 2010년 발간

세부항목 안내표
대분류 키워드 Time Horizon Quality Territorial Scope
Technological future internet, future network 2020년 Not Yet Global

Report 보고서

요약

 Here we present the finding for the first round of the Delphi Survey. A total of 235 experts took
part in the study (see Appendix 3). These results have been used for our main project goal, the creation of scenarios about a future internet. Two other major sources were also used to form the scenarios as well as the results of this Delphi Survey First Round:
· Research on the many trends at a socio-economic level that will influence a future internet
and also other projects looking at this subject, such as the Stanford ‘Clean Slate’ project.
· A major two-day workshop in September 2009 in Brussels with some 20 external experts
which produced strong debate and helped us to reshape our ideas, in some ways
completely.
All of this work has been to put together in an initial analysis, an Interim Report, soon to be
released, whose core is a set of early scenarios

본문

 Introduction to the First Round results and to the Second Round of the Delphi survey... 4
   The First Round................................................................................................................... 4
   The Second Round.............................................................................................................. 4
Section 1: Usage, users and expectations ............................................................................ 5
   General usage...................................................................................................................... 5
      By 2020, the Internet will become vital for the vast majority of people ................................... 5
      By 2020, between 11-50% of a person’s day will be directly influenced by the Internet ......... 5
      By 2020, the Internet will permeate most aspects of our lives................................................ 6
      By 2020, socio-economic use of the Internet will by far exceed political usage...................... 7
      By 2020, most government services will use the Internet to interact with people ................... 7
      By 2020, the Internet will impact most stages of learning and education processes .............. 8
      By 2020, politicians and governments will significantly use the Internet to influence politics .. 8
   Business usage ................................................................................................................... 9
      By 2020, the Internet will become vital for the vast majority of business functions................. 9
   Users .................................................................................................................................. 10
      By 2020, wealth and education level will remain important causes of the digital divide........ 10
      By 2020, Internet use will reach 75% of the EU population.................................................. 10
      By 2020, low cost and user-friendliness are key issues for a "socially-positive" Internet ...... 11
   Functionality and human interface expectations ............................................................ 12
      By 2020, mobile Internet will be available throughout the EU............................................... 12
      By 2020, most citizens will trust online transactions and financial services.......................... 12
      By 2020, the Internet will not achieve acceptable levels of privacy or crime prevention ....... 13
      By 2020, the Internet will not be secure and reliable enough for vital services..................... 13
      By 2020, average Internet use across the EU will exceed watching broadcast TV............... 14
      By 2020, Internet may become the main TV channel........................................................... 14
      By 2020, image recognition and gesture detection may be widely used in the Internet ........ 15
      By 2020, the Internet will not be protected from critical failures or cyber-attacks.................. 15
Section 2: Exclusion, behaviours, global issues and governance .................................... 16
   Exclusion ........................................................................................................................... 16
      By 2020, the Internet may or may not contribute to lessen the Exclusion Gap..................... 16
      By 2020, access costs and complexity will be key contributors to the Digital Poverty .......... 16
   Sociological and psychological behaviours.................................................................... 17
      By 2020, Internet cultures will tend to be creative................................................................ 17
      By 2020, the Internet will form new adjunct to society with increased social interactions ..... 17
      By 2020, jobs and the economy are more likely to be dependent on the Internet ................ 18
   Global issues ..................................................................................................................... 19
      By 2020, attempts will be made to apply more political control to the Internet...................... 19
      By 2020, global and economic conditions will accelerate Internet usage in many areas ...... 19
      By 2020, the Internet may or may not challenge capitalism and the corporate economy ..... 20
      By 2020, the Internet may or may not challenge the global balance in trade and power ...... 20
   Governance........................................................................................................................ 21
      By 2020, new governance structures will be needed for the Internet ................................... 21
      By 2020, the Internet governance may not need to go to United Nations levels................... 21
Section 3: Evolution, drivers and inhibitors........................................................................ 22
   Evolution............................................................................................................................ 22
      By 2020, the Internet may or may not see revolutionary changes........................................ 22
      By 2020, the Internet will be a convenience, lifestyle and information management tool...... 22
      By 2020, the appearance of multiple “Internets” will certainly surprise many ....................... 23
      By 2020, the Internet may have tiers of value and privacy/security...................................... 23
      By 2020, user generated content may dominate the Internet ............................................... 24
      By 2020, the “Internet of things” will become increasingly dominant .................................... 24
      By 2020, Internet services will not be mainly paid for by subscription and advertising ......... 25
      By 2020, the Internet may be able to understand users’ requirements (using semantics) .... 25
      By 2020, charging for Internet applications which are "free" today will be controversial ....... 26
      By 2020, an Internet divided into paid-for and a few free services will be controversial ....... 26
      By 2020, the Internet will be the TV channel of choice, with a virtual VCR........................... 27
   Drivers of success............................................................................................................. 27
      By 2020, e-literacy will be a key driver of the take up of the Internet.................................... 27
      By 2020, general levels of education will be a key driver in the take up of the Internet ........ 28
      By 2020, addressing poverty and social inequality will drive the take up of the Internet ....... 28
   Inhibitors of success......................................................................................................... 29
      By 2020, uncertainty over use of personal data and privacy will inhibit Internet use ............ 29
      By 2020, new and unexpected threats may inhibit Internet use ........................................... 29
      By 2020, between 10-20% of the population will refuse to use the Internet ......................... 30
      By 2020, government interventions to neutralize cyber-crime may inhibit Internet success . 31
Appendix 1: Over 200 surprises that could shake the Internet.......................................... 32
Appendix 2: Delphi Survey................................................................................................... 43
   Screenshot of Delphi Survey’s welcoming session........................................................ 43
   Screenshot of Delphi Survey’s Section 1 of 3 ................................................................. 44
   Screenshot of Delphi Survey’s Section 2 of 3 ................................................................. 45
   Screenshot of Delphi Survey’s Section 3 of 3 ................................................................. 46
   Screenshot of Delphi Survey’s closing session.............................................................. 47
Appendix 3: About the 235 Delphi respondents ................................................................. 48

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