본문바로가기

Wealth of Nations : Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds

National Intelligence Council, National Intelligence Council, US, 2012년 발간

세부항목 안내표
대분류 키워드 Time Horizon Quality Territorial Scope
Social Global Trends, 2030, Alternative works 2030년 Not Yet Global

Report 보고서

요약

Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds is the fifth installment in the National Intelligence Council’s series aimed at providing a framework for thinking about the future. As with previous editions, we hope that this report will stimulate strategic thinking by identifying critical trends and potential discontinuities. We distinguish between megatrends, those factors that will likely occur under any scenario, and game-changers, critical variables whose trajectories are far less certain. Finally, as our appreciation of the diversity and complexity of various factors has grown, we have increased our attention to scenarios or alternative worlds we might face.

본문

Megatrends
Individual
Empowerment :Individual empowerment will accelerate owing to poverty reduction, growth of the global middle class, greater educational attainment, widespread use of new communications and manufacturing technologies, and health-care advances.

Diffusion of Power: There will not be any hegemonic power. Power will shift to networks and coalitions in a
multipolar world.

Demographic Patterns : The demographic arc of instability will narrow. Economic growth might decline in “aging” countries. Sixty percent of the world’s population will live in urbanized areas; migration
will increase.

Food, Water,Energy Nexus: Demand for these resources will grow substantially owing to an increase in the global population. Tackling problems pertaining to one commodity will be linked to supply and demand for the others.

Game-changers
Crisis-Prone Global Economy:  Will global volatility and imbalances among players with different economic interests result in collapse? Or will greater multipolarity lead to increased resiliency in the global economic order?

Governance Gap: Will governments and institutions be able to adapt fast enough to harness change instead ofbeing overwhelmed by it?

Potential for Increased Conflict: Will rapid changes and shifts in power lead to more intrastate and interstat conflicts?

Wider Scope of Regional Instability: Will regional instability, especially in the Middle East and South Asia, spillover and create global insecurity?

Impact of New Technologies: Will technological breakthroughs be developed in time to boost economicproductivity and solve the problems caused by a growing world population, rapid urbanization, and
climate change?

Role of the United States: Will the US be able to work with new partners to reinvent the international system?

 

Potenti al worlds

Stalled Engines: In the most plausible worst-case scenario, the risks of interstate conflict increase. The US draws inward and globalization stalls.

Fusion: In the most plausible best-case outcome, China and the US collaborate on a range of issues, leading to broader global cooperation.

Gini-Out-of-the-Bottle: Inequalities explode as some countries become big winners and others fail. Inequalities within countries increase social tensions. Without completely disengaging, the US is no longer the“global policeman.”

Nonstate World:  Driven by new technologies, nonstate actors take the lead in confronting global challe

연관자료

연관자료 list
ID 제목 카테고리 Territorial Scope
연관자료 정보가 없습니다.