본문바로가기

Wealth of Nations : The World in 2050

John Hawksworth 외 1명, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, 2008년 발간

세부항목 안내표
대분류 키워드 Time Horizon Quality Territorial Scope
Political China, Russia, Brics, World future 2050년 Not Yet Global

Report 보고서

요약

The world economy is projected to grow at an average rate of just over 3% per annum from 2011 to 2050, doubling in size by 2032 and nearly doubling again by 2050. China is projected to overtake the US as the largest economy by 2017 in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and by 2027 in market exchange rate terms. India should become the third ‘global economic giant’ by 2050, a long way ahead of Brazil, which we expect to move up to 4th place ahead of Japan. Russia could overtake Germany to become the largest European economy before 2020 in PPP terms and by around 2035 at market exchange rates. Emerging economies such as Mexico and Indonesia could be larger than the UK and France by 2050, and Turkey larger than Italy. Outside the G20, Vietnam, Malaysia and Nigeria all have strong long-term growth potential, while Poland should comfortably outpace the large Western European economies for the next couple of decades.

본문

 1. Summary: the world in 2050 1
1.1. Key findings 1
1.2. Projections to 2050 1
1.3. Opportunities and challenges for business 3
1.4. Energy use and climate change: too late for 2 degrees? 3
2. Introduction 4
2.1. Background on the 2050 reports 4
2.2. Our modelling approach 4
2.3. What has changed since the January 2011 update? 5
2.4. Structure of this report 5
3. Key results 6
3.1. Relative size of economies 6
3.1.1. G7 versus E7 6
3.1.2. China, US and India likely to be dominant global economies by 2050 8
3.1.3. Beyond the top 3 countries 8
3.2. Relative GDP growth 10
3.3. Relative income levels 11
3.4. Focus on Poland and Malaysia 11
3.4.1. Commentary on long-term growth projections for Poland 11
3.4.2. Commentary on long-term growth projections for Malaysia 13
4. Potential obstacles to sustainable growth and the climate change challenge 14
4.1. Potential obstacles to sustainable growth 14
4.2. Energy use and climate change: too late for 2 degrees? 14
5. Implications for businesses 16
5.1. Opportunities and challenges for Western companies 16
5.2. Increased focus on emerging consumer markets 16
Appendix A. Drivers of growth 18
A.1. Model structure 18
A.1.1. Demographics 18
A.1.2. Education 19
A.1.3. Capital investment 20
A.1.4. Technological progress 21
A.2. Real exchange rates: PPPs vs. MERs 21
Appendix B. Additional projections for GDP at market exchange rates 23

연관자료

연관자료 list
ID 제목 카테고리 Territorial Scope
연관자료 정보가 없습니다.