National Intelligence Council, National Intelligence Council, United State, 2008년 발간
| 대분류 | 키워드 | Time Horizon | Quality | Territorial Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technological | Trends, NIC, 2025 | 2025년 | Not Yet | Global |
We prepared Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World to stimulate strategic thinking about the future by identifying key trends, the factors that drive them, where they seem to be headed, and how they might interact. It uses scenarios to illustrate some of the many ways in which the drivers examined in the study (e.g., globalization, demography, the rise of new powers, the decay of international institutions, climate
change, and the geopolitics of energy) may interact to generate challenges and opportunities for future decisionmakers. The study as a whole is more a description of the factors likely to shape events than a prediction of what will actually happen.
Executive Summary vi
Introduction: A Transformed World 1
More Change than Continuity 3
Alternative Futures 3
Chapter 1: The Globalizing Economy 6
Back to the Future 7
Growing Middle Class 8
State Capitalism: A Post-Democratic Marketplace Rising in the East? 8
Bumpy Ride in Correcting Current Global Imbalances 11
Multiple Financial Nodes 12
Diverging Development Models, but for How Long? 13
Chapter 2: The Demographics of Discord 18
Populations Growing, Declining, and Diversifying—at the Same Time 19
The Pensioner Boom: Challenges of Aging Populations 21
Persistent Youth Bulges 21
Changing Places: Migration, Urbanization, and Ethnic Shifts 23
Demographic Portraits: Russia, China, India, and Iran 24
Chapter 3: The New Players28
Rising Heavyweights: China and India 29
Other Key Players 31
Up-and-Coming Powers 35
Global Scenario I: A World Without the West 37
Chapter 4: Scarcity in the Midst of Plenty? 40
The Dawning of a Post-Petroleum Age? 41
The Geopolitics of Energy 45
Water, Food, and Climate Change 51
Global Scenario II: October Surprise 57
Chapter 5: Growing Potential for Conflict 60
A Shrinking Arc of Instability by 2025? 61
Growing Risk of a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East 61
New Conflicts Over Resources? 63
Terrorism: Good and Bad News 68
Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq: Local Trajectories and Outside Interests 72
Global Scenario III: BRICs’ Bust-Up 76
Chapter 6: Will the International System Be Up to the Challenges? 80
Multipolarity without Multilateralism 81
How Many International Systems? 82
A World of Networks 84
Global Scenario IV: Politics is Not Always Local 89
Chapter 7: Power-sharing in a Multipolar World 92
Demand for US Leadership Likely to Remain Strong, Capacities Will Shrink 93
New Relationships and Recalibrated Old Partnerships 93
Less Financial Margin of Error 94
More Limited Military Superiority 97
Surprises and Unintended Consequences 98
Leadership Will Be Key 98
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