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Wealth of Nations : Global Trends 2025

National Intelligence Council, National Intelligence Council, United State, 2008년 발간

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Technological Trends, NIC, 2025 2025년 Not Yet Global

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요약

 We prepared Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World to stimulate strategic thinking about the future by identifying key trends, the factors that drive them, where they seem to be headed, and how they might interact. It uses scenarios to illustrate some of the many ways in which the drivers examined in the study (e.g., globalization, demography, the rise of new powers, the decay of international institutions, climate
change, and the geopolitics of energy) may interact to generate challenges and opportunities for future decisionmakers. The study as a whole is more a description of the factors likely to shape events than a prediction of what will actually happen.

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Executive Summary       vi
Introduction: A Transformed World      1
   More Change than Continuity      3
   Alternative Futures      3
Chapter 1: The Globalizing Economy      6
   Back to the Future      7
   Growing Middle Class      8
   State Capitalism: A Post-Democratic Marketplace Rising in the East?      8
   Bumpy Ride in Correcting Current Global Imbalances      11
   Multiple Financial Nodes      12
   Diverging Development Models, but for How Long?      13
Chapter 2: The Demographics of Discord      18
   Populations Growing, Declining, and Diversifying—at the Same Time      19
   The Pensioner Boom: Challenges of Aging Populations      21
   Persistent Youth Bulges      21
   Changing Places: Migration, Urbanization, and Ethnic Shifts      23
   Demographic Portraits: Russia, China, India, and Iran      24
Chapter 3: The New Players28
   Rising Heavyweights: China and India      29
   Other Key Players      31
   Up-and-Coming Powers      35
   Global Scenario I: A World Without the West      37
Chapter 4: Scarcity in the Midst of Plenty?      40
   The Dawning of a Post-Petroleum Age?      41
   The Geopolitics of Energy      45
   Water, Food, and Climate Change      51
   Global Scenario II: October Surprise      57
Chapter 5: Growing Potential for Conflict      60
   A Shrinking Arc of Instability by 2025?      61
   Growing Risk of a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East      61
   New Conflicts Over Resources?      63
   Terrorism: Good and Bad News      68
   Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq: Local Trajectories and Outside Interests      72
   Global Scenario III: BRICs’ Bust-Up      76
Chapter 6: Will the International System Be Up to the Challenges?      80
   Multipolarity without Multilateralism      81
   How Many International Systems?      82
   A World of Networks      84
   Global Scenario IV: Politics is Not Always Local      89
Chapter 7: Power-sharing in a Multipolar World      92
   Demand for US Leadership Likely to Remain Strong, Capacities Will Shrink      93
   New Relationships and Recalibrated Old Partnerships      93
   Less Financial Margin of Error      94
   More Limited Military Superiority      97
   Surprises and Unintended Consequences      98
   Leadership Will Be Key      98

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