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Foreword......................................................................................................... 13
Key Messages................................................................................................. 14
Introduction .................................................................................................... 18
Chapter 1 Drivers and constraints in world energy to 2050 ...................... 19
1.1 The drivers of world economic growth......................................................................... 20
1.2 World fossil fuel resources .......................................................................................... 23
1.3 Technology portfolios in the WETO-H2 scenarios....................................................... 25
Chapter 2 Energy development and CO2 emissions .................................. 29
2.1 The geo-political and climate policy context................................................................ 29
2.2 The world energy balance and emission profile.......................................................... 31
2.3 Oil and gas production profiles in the Reference projection ....................................... 33
2.4 Primary energy consumption by region and inter-regional energy trade .................... 35
2.5 The development of electricity..................................................................................... 38
2.6 Hydrogen production and carbon capture and storage............................................... 40
2.7 World CO2 emissions .................................................................................................. 41
2.8 Trends in energy-related services............................................................................... 42
2.9 Europe’s primary energy balance................................................................................ 45
2.10 Europe’s final consumption and electricity sector ....................................................... 48
2.11 Hydrogen production and carbon capture and storage in Europe .............................. 49
Chapter 3 Impacts of the Carbon Constraint Case..................................... 54
3.1 Methodological considerations .................................................................................... 54
3.2 The climate change challenge and greenhouse gas reduction targets....................... 54
3.3 The WETO-H2 Carbon Constraint case: Factor 2 reductions in 2050
for Annex B countries .................................................................................................. 57
3.4 Impacts on world primary energy ................................................................................ 59
3.5 Impacts on the electricity sector and on energy conversion ....................................... 61
3.6 Responses to the carbon constraint, world level......................................................... 63
3.7 The Carbon Constraint case in Europe....................................................................... 64
3.8 Responses to the carbon constraint in Europe ........................................................... 68
Chapter 4 Towards a Hydrogen Economy .................................................. 72
4.1 State of hydrogen technology...................................................................................... 72
4.1.1 Production of hydrogen ....................................................................................... 73
4.1.2 CO2 capture and storage (CCS).......................................................................... 79
4.1.3 Hydrogen transport and distribution .................................................................... 80
4.1.4 Hydrogen storage................................................................................................ 83
4.1.5 Conversion and final use..................................................................................... 84
4.2 Hydrogen technology pathways .................................................................................. 90
4.2.1 Pathway n° 1: “Centralised fossil fuel-based hydrogen production” ................... 91
4.2.2 Pathway n° 2: “Electricity-based hydrogen production” ...................................... 92
4.2.3 Quantitative assumptions .................................................................................... 94
4.3 Breakthroughs In hydrogen technology and priorities for research ............................ 96
4.3.1 Production of hydrogen ....................................................................................... 96
4.3.2 Hydrogen distribution and storage .................................................................... 100
4.3.3 End-use technologies........................................................................................ 100
4.4 Energy development and CO2 emissions in the H2 case .......................................... 102
4.4.1 World primary energy demand .......................................................................... 103
4.4.2 World energy-related CO2 emissions ................................................................ 104
4.4.3 World electricity and hydrogen production ........................................................ 105
4.4.4 Final energy consumption and energy developments in transport ................... 108
4.4.5 The hydrogen case in Europe ........................................................................... 111
Annexes ........................................................................................................ 118
1. Definition of POLES Regions ............................................................................................. 119
2. WETO-H2 projections by region - Reference Case............................................................ 121
3. WETO-H2 projections by region - Carbon Constraint Case ............................................... 130
4. WETO-H2 projections by region - H2 Case......................................................................... 139
Special contribution - A mean-variance portfolio optimisation
of the POLES reference scenario ............................................................... 148
List of acronyms and abbreviations ........................................................... 160
Acknowledgments........................................................................................ 162