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Wealth of Nations : World Energy Science & Technology Outlook 2050

European Commission, European Commission - Directorate-General for Research, 2005년 발간

세부항목 안내표
대분류 키워드 Time Horizon Quality Territorial Scope
Economics Oil Price, Energy Consumption, Climate Change, Carbon Emission 2050년 Not Yet Global

Scenario 보고서

요약

 The WETO-H2 study has developed a Reference projection of the world energy system and two
variant scenarios, a carbon constraint case and a hydrogen case. These scenarios have been
used to explore the options for technology and climate policies in the next half-century.
All the projections to 2050 have been made with a world energy sector simulation model – the
POLES model – that describes the development of the national and regional energy systems,
and their interactions through international energy markets, under constraints on resources and
climate policies.

본문

Foreword......................................................................................................... 13
Key Messages................................................................................................. 14
Introduction .................................................................................................... 18
Chapter 1 Drivers and constraints in world energy to 2050 ...................... 19
1.1 The drivers of world economic growth......................................................................... 20
1.2 World fossil fuel resources .......................................................................................... 23
1.3 Technology portfolios in the WETO-H2 scenarios....................................................... 25
Chapter 2 Energy development and CO2 emissions .................................. 29
2.1 The geo-political and climate policy context................................................................ 29
2.2 The world energy balance and emission profile.......................................................... 31
2.3 Oil and gas production profiles in the Reference projection ....................................... 33
2.4 Primary energy consumption by region and inter-regional energy trade .................... 35
2.5 The development of electricity..................................................................................... 38
2.6 Hydrogen production and carbon capture and storage............................................... 40
2.7 World CO2 emissions .................................................................................................. 41
2.8 Trends in energy-related services............................................................................... 42
2.9 Europe’s primary energy balance................................................................................ 45
2.10 Europe’s final consumption and electricity sector ....................................................... 48
2.11 Hydrogen production and carbon capture and storage in Europe .............................. 49
Chapter 3 Impacts of the Carbon Constraint Case..................................... 54
3.1 Methodological considerations .................................................................................... 54
3.2 The climate change challenge and greenhouse gas reduction targets....................... 54
3.3 The WETO-H2 Carbon Constraint case: Factor 2 reductions in 2050
for Annex B countries .................................................................................................. 57
3.4 Impacts on world primary energy ................................................................................ 59
3.5 Impacts on the electricity sector and on energy conversion ....................................... 61
3.6 Responses to the carbon constraint, world level......................................................... 63
3.7 The Carbon Constraint case in Europe....................................................................... 64
3.8 Responses to the carbon constraint in Europe ........................................................... 68
Chapter 4 Towards a Hydrogen Economy .................................................. 72
4.1 State of hydrogen technology...................................................................................... 72
4.1.1 Production of hydrogen ....................................................................................... 73
4.1.2 CO2 capture and storage (CCS).......................................................................... 79
4.1.3 Hydrogen transport and distribution .................................................................... 80
4.1.4 Hydrogen storage................................................................................................ 83
4.1.5 Conversion and final use..................................................................................... 84
4.2 Hydrogen technology pathways .................................................................................. 90
4.2.1 Pathway n° 1: “Centralised fossil fuel-based hydrogen production” ................... 91
4.2.2 Pathway n° 2: “Electricity-based hydrogen production” ...................................... 92
4.2.3 Quantitative assumptions .................................................................................... 94
4.3 Breakthroughs In hydrogen technology and priorities for research ............................ 96
4.3.1 Production of hydrogen ....................................................................................... 96
4.3.2 Hydrogen distribution and storage .................................................................... 100
4.3.3 End-use technologies........................................................................................ 100
4.4 Energy development and CO2 emissions in the H2 case .......................................... 102
4.4.1 World primary energy demand .......................................................................... 103
4.4.2 World energy-related CO2 emissions ................................................................ 104
4.4.3 World electricity and hydrogen production ........................................................ 105
4.4.4 Final energy consumption and energy developments in transport ................... 108
4.4.5 The hydrogen case in Europe ........................................................................... 111
Annexes ........................................................................................................ 118
1. Definition of POLES Regions ............................................................................................. 119
2. WETO-H2 projections by region - Reference Case............................................................ 121
3. WETO-H2 projections by region - Carbon Constraint Case ............................................... 130
4. WETO-H2 projections by region - H2 Case......................................................................... 139
Special contribution - A mean-variance portfolio optimisation
of the POLES reference scenario ............................................................... 148
List of acronyms and abbreviations ........................................................... 160
Acknowledgments........................................................................................ 162

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