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Wealth of Nations : The DCDC Global Streategic Trends Programme 2007-2036

Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre(DCDC), Ministry of Defence UK(MOD), 2006년 발간

세부항목 안내표
대분류 키워드 Time Horizon Quality Territorial Scope
Technological Climate Change, Globalisation, Innovation, Conflicts 없음 Not Yet Global

Scenario 보고서

요약

 DCDC’s Strategic Trends Programme should aim to provide a detailed analysis of the future strategic context for Defence out to 30 years. This will be an essential input into policy development and major outputs include:
• A historically and theme-based analysis of the future strategic context;
• Analysis of the key risks and shocks, including an assessment of their probability, frequency and magnitude;
• Identification of the generic Defence and Security implications of this analysis.

본문

Introduction i
      Conditions of Release i
      Departmental Direction i
      The Development Doctrine and Concepts Centre iii
      Foreword by the Director General iv
Contents Pages vii
List of Figures ix
List of illustrations ix
Method x
      The Purpose of Strategic Trends x
      Scope xi
      Analytical Approach xi
      Expressing Probability xiv
      Sources xiv
Key Findings 1
      Introduction 1
      Climate Change 2
      Globalization 3
      Global Inequality 3
Key Theme 1 – Population and Resources 6
      Drivers of Change 7
Key Theme 2 – Identity and Interest 10
      Drivers of Change 11
Key Theme 3 – Governance and Order 14
      Drivers of Change 15
Key Theme 4 – Knowledge and Innovation 18
      Drivers of Change 19
Dimensions 22
      Introduction 22
Resource Dimension 22
      Scope 22
      Outcomes 23
      Risks 26
      Defence and Security Implications 28
      Potential Trend Variation 30
      Hot Topic – Competition for Energy 31
Social Dimension 33
      Scope 33
      Outcomes 33
      Risks 35
      Defence and Security Implications 37
      Potential Trend Variation 40
      Hot Topic – Media in Society 41
Political Dimension 42
      Scope 42
      Outcomes 42
      Risks 48
      Defence and Security Implications 51
      Potential Trend Variation 54
      Hot Topic – Soft Power 55
Science and Technology 56
      Scope 56
      Outcomes 56
      Areas of Potential Breakthrough 58
      Risks 60
      Defence and Security Implications 61
      Potential Trend Variation 63
      Hot Topic – The Scramble for Space 65
Military Dimension 67
      Scope 67
      Outcomes 67
      Risks 70
      Defence and Security Implications 72
      Potential Trend Variation 74
      Hot Topic – The Balance of Military Capability 75
Strategic Shocks 76
      Introduction 76
      Global 76
      Resource 78
      Social 79
      Political 80
      Science and Technology 82
      Military 84
Non-Western Perspectives 86
DCDC Contact Points 89
Acknowledgements 90

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