본문바로가기

Wealth of Nations : ACSF - Driving on Natural Gas - Fuel Price and Demand Scenarios for Natural Gas Vehicles to 2025

American Clean Skies Foundation (ACSF), American Clean Skies Foundation (ACSF), 2013년 발간

세부항목 안내표
대분류 키워드 Time Horizon Quality Territorial Scope
Economics Natural Gas, Fuel Price, energy demand scenarios 없음 Not Yet Global

Scenario 보고서

요약

 Petroleum-based fuels have dominated the U.S. transportation market for many decades. However, the lack of fuel diversity makes the economy and consumers susceptible to price shocks. This risk has spurred a growing commercial and public policy interest in alternative transportation fuels such as biofuels, natural gas and electricity. Natural gas provides one of the most promising long-term opportunities to diversify ransportation fuel usage because it can readily power medium and heavy duty trucks—which now account for approximately 22 percent of the U.S. transportation sector’s oil use—and also can provide fuel cost savings to fleet managers. Economy-wide competition for natural gas, however, raises an important question: Is it prudent for the U.S. to substitute natural gas for other transportation fuels or will this lead to significant additional pricing pressure for the fuel? This report aims to answer this and related questions by constructing different natural gas vehicle (NGV) growth scenarios and the natural gas demand and price impacts these scenarios may generate. The three scenarios reviewed here for NGVs range from trend line projections to an aggressive—but business-based—growth path for natural gas light duty vehicles and the heavy duty truck segment. The scenarios were compared to a reference case to determine natural gas demand and price  hanges.

본문

Executive Summary..........................................................................................................................................3
 Introduction..................................................................................................................................................5
 Opportunity for Natural Gas vehicles.................................................................................................7
 Scenarios, Assumptions and Methodology.....................................................................................12
3.1 Reference Case......................................................................................................................... 12
3.2 Heavy Duty Vehicle Potential Scenario................................................................................. 13
3.3 Light Duty Vehicle Potential Scenario..................................................................................14
3.4 Combined NGV Potential Scenario........................................................................................... 17
3.5 Methodology................................................................................................................. 17
4 Results and Conclusion...................................................................................................... 18
5 Bibliography..................................................................................................................22
6 Appendix A: Assumptions and Result Tables....................................................................23
7 Appendix B: Navigant Scenario Development and Methodology.....................................................28
7.1 Navigant North American Natural Gas Market Outlook, Fall 2012......................................................28
7.2 Heavy Duty Vehicle Potential.....................................................................................................28
7.3 Light Duty Vehicle Potential......................................................................................................28
7.4 Combined Natural Gas Vehicle Potential..........................................................................29
7.5 Summary.........................................................................................................................29
7.6 Number of Natural Gas Vehicles..............................................................................................29
7.7 New Vehicle Fuel Efficiency...............................................................................................30
7.8 Vehicle Miles Traveled...........................................................................................................30
7.9 Natural Gas Fuel Consumption........................................................................................30
7.10 Potential Impact on Domestic Natural Gas Prices.........................................................30

연관자료

연관자료 list
ID 제목 카테고리 Territorial Scope
연관자료 정보가 없습니다.