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Wealth of Nations : Mapping the global future

National Intelligence Council, National Intelligence Council, 2004년 발간

세부항목 안내표
대분류 키워드 Time Horizon Quality Territorial Scope
Economics Oil Price, Innovation, Religion, Conflicts 없음 Not Yet Global

Scenario 보고서

요약

 At no time since the formation of the Western alliance system in 1949 have the shape and nature of international alignments been in such a state of flux. The end of the Cold War shifted the tectonic plates, but the repercussions from these momentous events are still unfolding. Emerging powers in Asia, retrenchment in Eurasia, a roiling Middle East, and transatlantic divisions are among the issues that have only come to a head in recent years. The very magnitude and speed of change resulting from a globalizing world—apart from its precise character—will be a defining feature of the world out to 2020. Other significant characteristics include: the rise of new powers, new challenges to governance, and a more pervasive sense of insecurity, including terrorism. As we map the future, the prospects for increasing global prosperity and the limited likelihood of great power conflict provide an overall favorable environment for coping with what are otherwise daunting challenges. The role of the United States will be an important variable in how the world is shaped, influencing the path that states and nonstate actors choose to follow.

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 Contents Page
Executive Summary

Methodology

Introduction

The Contradictions of Globalization
An Expanding and Integrating Global Economy
The Technology Revolution
Lingering Social Inequalities
Fictional Scenario: Davos World
Rising Powers: The Changing Geopolitical Landscape
Rising Asia
Other Rising States?
The “Aging” Powers
Growing Demands for Energy
US Unipolarity—How Long Can It Last?
Fictional Scenario: Pax Americana
New Challenges to Governance
Halting Progress on Democratization
Identity Politics
Fictional Scenario: A New Caliphate
Pervasive Insecurity
Transmuting International Terrorism
Intensifying Internal Conflicts
Rising Powers: Tinder for Conflict?
The WMD Factor
Fictional Scenario: Cycle of Fear
Policy Implications

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