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 1. Introduction and Executive Summary ............................................................................... 8
2. Methodology ................................................................................................................... 10
3. Delphi Projections on the Future of Aviation ............................................................................ 12
3.1 Customer Behavior ........................................................................................................... 14
3.2 Growth Drivers ...................................................................................................................... 17
3.3 Market Structure ........................................................................................................... 21
3.4 Business Models ....................................................................................................... 23
3.5 Externalities ................................................................................................................. 26
3.6 Substitution ............................................................................................................... 31
3.7 Technology ............................................................................................................... 34
4. Strategic Mapping and the Probable Future of Aviation ........................................................ 36
4.1 High-Impact Expectations and the Probable Future ............................................ 37
4.2 High-Impact Eventualities ................................................................................... 38
4.3 Potential Surprises ...................................................................................................... 39
5. Discontinuity Analysis and the Surprising Future of Aviation ...................................................... 40
5.1 Extreme Scenarios on the Future of Aviation .......................................................................... 41
5.1.1 Aviation at the Crossroads (Probable Scenario) ....................................................................... 42
5.1.2 The Era of Eco-Aviation ......................................................................................................... 42
5.1.3 Business as Usual ................................................................................................................ 43
5.1.4 Aviation Paradise ...................................................................................................... 43
5.2 Wildcard Scenarios on the Future of Aviation ..................................................................... 44
5.2.1 Aviation Terrorism Reloaded .......................................................................... 44
5.2.2 Spread of a Global Pandemic ................................................................................................... 44
5.2.3 Natural Catastrophes ....................................................................................................... 45
5.2.4 Global Economic Crises, Wars and Oil Price Shocks ........................................ 45
5.2.5 Deglobalization, Relocation, and the Return of Protectionism ..................................... 46
5.2.6 Energy Revolution ............................................................................................. 46
5.2.7 Revolution in Transportation Technologies and Concepts ....................................... 47
5.2.8 The Era of Virtual Meetings ............................................................................. 47
5.2.9 The Fabbing Society ......................................................................................... 48
6. Future Creation ............................................................................................... 49
6.1 Opportunities in Strategy and Policy ....................................................................... 50
6.2 Opportunities in Collaborations and Networks ..................................................... 51
6.3 Opportunities in Products and Services .................................................................... 52
6.4 Opportunities in People and Culture ........................................................................... 54
6.5 Opportunities in Processes and Organization ....................................................... 55
6.6 Opportunities in Finance and Controlling ........................................................................................ 56
7. References ......................................................................................................................... 57
8. Contact Information ........................................................................................................................ 62