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Wealth of Nations : The Future of Aviation 2025: Global Scenarios for Passenger Aviation, Business Aviation and Air Cargo (Summary)

BrainNet, European Business School (Supply Chain Management Institute), BrainNet, European Business School (Supply Chain Management Institute), 2010년 발간

세부항목 안내표
대분류 키워드 Time Horizon Quality Territorial Scope
Economics Global Scenario for passenger Aviation, future ari cargo, future aviation 없음 Not Yet Global

Scenario 보고서

요약

 Passenger aviation and air cargo transportation signifi cantly contribute to the ongoing globalization of business and leisure activities. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), industry members transport up to 2.3 billion passengers and 40 million tons of freight worldwide per year. Approximately 30% to 40% of the global freight value is transported as air cargo. Th erefore, due to the importance of the aviation industry, there is great necessity to actively plan its future.

본문

 1. Introduction and Executive Summary ............................................................................... 8
2. Methodology ................................................................................................................... 10
3. Delphi Projections on the Future of Aviation ............................................................................ 12
3.1 Customer Behavior ........................................................................................................... 14
3.2 Growth Drivers ...................................................................................................................... 17
3.3 Market Structure ........................................................................................................... 21
3.4 Business Models ....................................................................................................... 23
3.5 Externalities ................................................................................................................. 26
3.6 Substitution ............................................................................................................... 31
3.7 Technology ............................................................................................................... 34
4. Strategic Mapping and the Probable Future of Aviation ........................................................ 36
4.1 High-Impact Expectations and the Probable Future ............................................ 37
4.2 High-Impact Eventualities ................................................................................... 38
4.3 Potential Surprises ...................................................................................................... 39
5. Discontinuity Analysis and the Surprising Future of Aviation ...................................................... 40
5.1 Extreme Scenarios on the Future of Aviation .......................................................................... 41
5.1.1 Aviation at the Crossroads (Probable Scenario) ....................................................................... 42
5.1.2 The Era of Eco-Aviation ......................................................................................................... 42
5.1.3 Business as Usual ................................................................................................................ 43
5.1.4 Aviation Paradise ...................................................................................................... 43
5.2 Wildcard Scenarios on the Future of Aviation ..................................................................... 44
5.2.1 Aviation Terrorism Reloaded .......................................................................... 44
5.2.2 Spread of a Global Pandemic ................................................................................................... 44
5.2.3 Natural Catastrophes ....................................................................................................... 45
5.2.4 Global Economic Crises, Wars and Oil Price Shocks ........................................ 45
5.2.5 Deglobalization, Relocation, and the Return of Protectionism ..................................... 46
5.2.6 Energy Revolution ............................................................................................. 46
5.2.7 Revolution in Transportation Technologies and Concepts ....................................... 47
5.2.8 The Era of Virtual Meetings ............................................................................. 47
5.2.9 The Fabbing Society ......................................................................................... 48
6. Future Creation ............................................................................................... 49
6.1 Opportunities in Strategy and Policy ....................................................................... 50
6.2 Opportunities in Collaborations and Networks ..................................................... 51
6.3 Opportunities in Products and Services .................................................................... 52
6.4 Opportunities in People and Culture ........................................................................... 54
6.5 Opportunities in Processes and Organization ....................................................... 55
6.6 Opportunities in Finance and Controlling ........................................................................................ 56
7. References ......................................................................................................................... 57
8. Contact Information ........................................................................................................................ 62

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