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Wealth of Nations : Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue about the Future with Nongovernement Experts

National Intelligence Council, National Intelligence Council, 2000년 발간

세부항목 안내표
대분류 키워드 Time Horizon Quality Territorial Scope
Political GDP, Energy Consumption, Demography, Migration, Structural Change, Conflicts 2015년 Not Yet Global

Scenario 보고서

요약

Over the past 15 months, the National Intelligence Council (NIC), in close collaboration with US Government specialists and a wide range of experts outside the government, has worked to identify major drivers and trends that will shape the world of 2015.

The key drivers identified are: Demographics, Natural resources and environment, Science and technology, The global economy and globalization, National and international governance, Future conflict, The role of the United States.

In examining these drivers, several points should be kept in mind: No single driver or trend will dominate the global future in 2015 / Each driver will have varying impacts in different regions and countries / The drivers are not necessarily mutually reinforcing; in some cases, they will work at cross-purposes.

Taken together, these drivers and trends intersect to create an integrated picture of the world of 2015, about which we can make projections with varying degrees of confidence and identify some troubling uncertainties of strategic importance to the United States.

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Note on Process 
Overview 
 The Drivers and Trends 
 Key Uncertainties: Technology Will Alter Outcomes 
 Key Challenges to Governance: People will Decide 
Discussion
 Population Trends
 Science and Technology 
 The Global Economy
 National and International Governance 
 Future Conflict
 Major Regions

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